Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and Policy

As taught in: Spring 2008

Two pie charts, the left showing temperature increases from 3-4 to 6-8 degrees Celsius, and the right showing increases from 1-2 to 3-4 degrees.

Comparison of likely temperature increases over 1990-2100 with no policy (left), and stabilization of greenhouse gases at 550pm CO₂ equivalents (right). (Figure from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.)

Instructors:

Eunjee Lee
(Teaching Assistant)
Prof. Henry Jacoby
Prof. Mort Webster
Prof. Ronald Prinn
Travis Franck
(Teaching Assistant)

MIT Course Number:

15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J

Level:

Graduate

Course Features

Course Description

This class introduces scientific, economic, and ecological issues underlying the threat of global climate change, and the institutions engaged in negotiating an international response. It also develops an integrated approach to analysis of climate change processes, and assessment of proposed policy measures, drawing on research and model development within the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.

Syllabus

Course Meeting Times

Lectures: 2 sessions / week, 1.5 hours / session

Calendar

Course calendar.
SES #	TOPICS	KEY DATES
1	Introduction and overview
2	Institutions I: political and analytical organizations
3	Review of the mathematics of climate analysis
4	Climate I: past climate, and gases, aerosols and radiation	Homework 1 distributed
5	Economics primer
6	Climate II: dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans
7	Economics of the global commons	Homework 1 due Homework 2 distributed
8	Economics I: economic growth, technology and greenhouse gas emissions
9	Institutions II: the international climate negotiations
10	Economics II: the economics of greenhouse gas emissions control
11	Introduction to the Toy Integrated Global System Model
12	Climate III: interaction of atmosphere, oceans and biosphere	Homework 2 due Homework 3 distributed
13	Analysis of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation
14	Economics III: climate policy analysis
15	Emissions trading and tax systems
16	Climate machine IV: regional impacts of climate change
17	Review of methods of uncertainty analysis	Homework 3 due Homework 4 distributed Policy exercise distributed
18	Integrated assessment I: sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
19	Sea level rise and adaptation
20	Methods for decision under uncertainty	Policy exercise: preliminary note due
21	Integrated assessment II: deciding global effort and burden shares	Homework 4 due
22	Climate change and the Arctic region
23	Climate V: unresolved problems in climate analysis
24	Discussion of homework sets and the policy exercise
25	Student team presentations	Policy exercise: final memo and report due
26	Final summary and discussion

Grading

Grading criteria.
ACTIVITIES	PERCENTAGES
Homework (15% each)	60%
Team project 1	10%
Team project 2	25%
Class participation	5%

Readings

Course readings.
SES #	TOPICS	READINGS
1	Introduction and overview
2	Institutions I: political and analytical organizations	Uniting on Climate: A Guide to the Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Protocol. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 2007, pp. 7-38. (PDF - 3.7 MB) Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report. (PDF - 1.9 MB)
3	Review of the mathematics of climate analysis
4	Climate I: past climate, and gases, aerosols and radiation	Karl, Thomas R., and Kevin E. Trenberth. "Modern Global Climate Change." Science 302 (2003): 1719-1723. Prinn, Ronald. "Non-CO₂ Greenhouse Gases." In The Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans, Climate, and the Natural World. Edited by Christopher Field and Michael Raupach. Washington, DC: Island Press, 2004. ISBN: 9781559635271. Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I, Fourth Assessment Report, pp. 1-17. (PDF - 3.7 MB) Andreae, Meinrat, Chris Jones, and Peter Cox. "Strong Present-Day Aerosol Cooling Implies a Hot Future." Nature 435 (2005): 1187-1190.
5	Economics primer	Callan, Scott, and Janet Thomas. Environmental Economics and Management: Theory, Policy and Applications. 4th ed. Florence, KY: South-Western, 2006, chapter 2. ISBN: 9780324320671. Kolstad, Charles. Environmental Economics. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1999, chapter 4, pp. 49-77. ISBN: 9780195119541.
6	Climate II: dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans	Schneider, Stephen. "Introduction to Climate Modeling." In Climate System Modeling. Edited by Kevin Trenberth. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1993, pp. 3-26. ISBN: 9780521432313. Hansen, James, et al. "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications." Science 308 (2005): 1431-1435. Penner, Joyce. "Climate Change: The Cloud Conundrum." Nature 432 (2004): 962-963.
7	Economics of the global commons	The Economics of Climate Change: A Primer. US Congressional Budget Office, 2003, chapter 3. (PDF - 2.9 MB) Callan, Scott, and Janet Thomas. Environmental Economics and Management: Theory, Policy and Applications. 4th ed. Florence, KY: South-Western, 2006, chapter 3. ISBN: 9780324320671.
8	Economics I: economic growth, technology and greenhouse gas emissions	The Economics of Climate Change: A Primer. US Congressional Budget Office, 2003, chapters 1, 3, and 4. (PDF - 2.9 MB) Weyant, J. "Economic Models: How They Work and Why Their Results Differ." In Climate Change: Science, Strategies, and Solutions. Edited by Eileen Clausen. Washington, DC: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2001. ISBN: 9789004122765.
9	Institutions II: the international climate negotiations	Jacoby, Henry, and David Reiner. "Getting Climate on Track after The Hague: An Update." Chapter 15 in The Global Governance Reader: Concepts and Issues. Edited by Rorden Wilkinson. New York, NY: Routledge, 2005. ISBN: 9780415332064. Thirteenth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the FCCC and Third Sessions of the MOP to the Kyoto Protocol, 3-15 December. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2007. Bali Action Plan, Decision -/CP.13. Framework Convention on Climate Change, December 2007. (Also skim the COP-13 items at UNFCCC)
10	Economics II: the economics of greenhouse gas emissions control	Pizer, William. "Choosing Price or Quantity Controls for Greenhouse Gases." In Climate Change Economics and Policy: An RFF Anthology. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future, 2001. ISBN: 9781891853043. "The Role of Coal in Energy Growth and CO2 Emissions." Chapter 2 in The Future of Coal: Options for a Carbon-Constrained World. PDF available at The Future of Coal. McKinsey Greenhouse Gas Reports: McKinsey has several different reports related to greenhouse gas reduction. This site has related links and full reports: McKinsey & Company Executive Summary, Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost? McKinsey & Company, 2007. (PDF) Jaffe, Adam, Richard Newell, and Robert Stavins. "Energy-Efficient Technologies and Climate Change Policies: Issues and Evidence." In Climate Change Economics and Policy: An RFF Anthology. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future, 2001. ISBN: 9781891853043. Babiker, Mustafa, John Reilly, and Henry Jacoby. "The Kyoto Protocol and Developing Countries." MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Report No. 56, October 1999. (PDF)
11	Introduction to the Toy Integrated Global System Model
12	Climate III: interaction of atmosphere, oceans and biosphere	Prinn, Ronald, et al. "Integrated Global System Model for Climate Policy Assessment: Feedbacks and Sensitivity Studies." Climatic Change 41 (1999): 469-546, sections 1, 2 and 3. Sokolov, A. P., et al. "The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation." MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Report No. 124, July 2005. (PDF - 1.4 MB)
13	Analysis of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation	Nordhaus, William, and Joseph Boyer. Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003, chapter 4. ISBN: 9780262640541. Stern, Nicholas. "Economic Modeling of Climate Change Impacts." Chapter 6 in The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007. ISBN: 9780521700801. Oppenheimer, Michael. "Defining Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference: The Role of Science, the Limits of Science." Risk Analysis 25 (2005): 1399-1407.
14	Economics III: climate policy analysis	Nordhaus, William, and Joseph Boyer. Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003, chapter 7. ISBN: 9780262640541. Executive Summary, Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Anthropogenic Concentrations. U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1a, 2007. (PDF) Toth, Ferenc, et al. "Exploring Options for Global Climate Policy: A New Analytical Framework." Environment 44 (2002): 23-33.
15	Emissions trading and tax systems	Ellerman, A. Denny, Paul Joskow, and David Harrison, Jr. "Emissions Trading in the U.S.: Experience, Lessons and Considerations for Greenhouse Gases." Washington, DC: Pew Center for Global Climate Change. (PDF) Paltsev, Sergey, et al. "Assessment of U.S. GHG Cap-and-Trade Proposals." Climate Policy 8 (2008): 395-420. Parry, Ian, and William Pizer. "Combating Global Warming: Is Taxation or Cap-and-Trade a Better Strategy for Reducing Greenhouse Emissions?" Regulation 30 (2007): 18-22.
16	Climate machine IV: regional impacts of climate change	Talbot, David. "Planning for a Climate-Changed World." Technology Review, May-June 2007, pp. 63-70. National Assessment Synthesis Team, U.S. Global Change Research Program. Climate Change Impacts on the United States. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001, pp. 1-37. ISBN: 9780521000758. Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II, Fourth Assessment Report. (PDF) Stroeve, Julienne, et al. "Arctic Sea Ice Extent Plummets in 2007." EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 89 (2008): 13-14. Tedesco, Marco. "A New Record in 2007 for Melting in Greenland." EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 88 (2007): 383. Wolff, Eric. "Whither Antarctic Sea Ice?" Science 302 (2003): 1164. Whitfield, John. "Alaska's Climate: Too Hot to Handle." Nature 425 (2003): 338-339.
17	Review of methods of uncertainty analysis
18	Integrated assessment I: sensitivity and uncertainty analysis	Prinn, Ronald, et al. "Integrated Global System Model for Climate Policy Assessment: Feedbacks and Sensitivity Studies." Climatic Change 41 (1999): 469-546, sections 4 and 5. Webster, Mort, et al. "Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change and Policy Response." Climatic Change 61 (2003): 295-320. Forest, Chris, Peter Stone, and Andrei Sokolov. "Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings." Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006): 1-4. Webster, Mort. "Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty to Policy-Makers and the Public." Climatic Change 61 (2003): 1-8.
19	Sea level rise and adaptation	Gibbons, Sheila J. Arenstam, and Robert J. Nicholls. "Island Abandoment and Sea-Level Rise: An Historical Analog from the Chesapeake Bay, USA." Global Environmental Change 16 (2006): 40-47. Chao, B. F., Y. H. Wu, and Y. S. Li. "Impact of Artificial Reservoir Water Impoundment on Global Sea Level." Science 320 (2008): 212-214.
20	Methods for decision under uncertainty
21	Integrated assessment II: deciding global effort and burden shares	Webster, Mort, Lisa Jakobovitz, and James Norton. "Learning about Climate Change and Implications for Near-Term Policy." Climatic Change 89 (2008): 67-85. Aldy, Joseph, and Robert Stavins. "Introduction: International Policy Architecture for Global Climate Change." Chapter 1 in Architectures for Agreement: Addressing Global Climate Change in the Post-Kyoto World. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007. ISBN: 9780521692175.
22	Climate change and the Arctic region	Bunn, Andrew, et al. "Northern High-Latitude Ecosystems Respond to Climate Change." EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 88 (2007): 333-335. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Highlights Brochure, Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2004, pp. 1-16. ISBN: 9780521617789.
23	Climate V: unresolved problems in climate analysis	Kerr, Richard. "Confronting the Bogeyman of the Climate System." Science 310 (2005): 432-433. Harvell, C. Drew, et al. "Climate Warming and Disease Risks for Terrestrial and Marine Biota." Science 296 (2002): 2158-2162. Kerr, Richard. "A Bit of Icy Antarctica Is Sliding Toward the Sea." Science 305 (2004): 1897. Morton, Oliver. "Is This What it Takes to Save the World?" Nature 447 (2007): 132-136. Mann, Michael, et al. "Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Revisited." EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 88 (2007): 349. Emanuel, Kerry. "Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones Over the Past 30 Years." Nature 436 (2005): 686-688. Schiermeier, Quirin. "Clear Skies Raise Global-Warming Estimates." Nature 435 (2005): 1142-1143.
24	Discussion of homework sets and the policy exercise
25	Student team presentations
26	Final summary and discussion

Lecture Notes

Lecture notes files.
SES #	TOPICS	LECTURE NOTES
1	Introduction and overview	(PDF)
2	Institutions I: political and analytical organizations	(PDF - 1.0 MB)
3	Review of the mathematics of climate analysis	(PDF)
4	Climate I: past climate, and gases, aerosols and radiation	(PDF - 1.3 MB)
5	Economics primer	(PDF)
6	Climate II: dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans	(PDF - 1.1 MB)
7	Economics of the global commons	(PDF)
8	Economics I: economic growth, technology and greenhouse gas emissions	(PDF)
9	Institutions II: the international climate negotiations	(PDF)
10	Economics II: the economics of greenhouse gas emissions control	(PDF)
11	Introduction to the Toy Integrated Global System Model
12	Climate III: interaction of atmosphere, oceans and biosphere	(PDF - 1.2 MB)
13	Analysis of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation	(PDF)
14	Economics III: climate policy analysis	(PDF)
15	Emissions trading and tax systems	(PDF)
16	Climate machine IV: regional impacts of climate change	(PDF - 3.2 MB)
17	Review of methods of uncertainty analysis	(PDF)
18	Integrated assessment I: sensitivity and uncertainty analysis	(PDF)
19	Sea level rise and adaptation	(PDF - 2.6 MB)
20	Methods for decision under uncertainty	(PDF)
21	Integrated assessment II: deciding global effort and burden shares
22	Climate change and the Arctic region
23	Climate V: unresolved problems in climate analysis	(PDF - 2.9 MB)
24	Discussion of homework sets and the policy exercise
25	Student team presentations
26	Final summary and discussion

Assignments

This section contains the problem sets and policy exercise. Note that the model software needed for problem set 4 could not be made available on MIT OpenCourseWare.